Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea: Does Putin Know What He is Getting Into?

Since the 1945 United Nations Charter outlawing war (no guffaws, please), no major country in the world has legally declared war on another. That of course hasn’t stopped countries warring with one another, only from the legal nicety of formally announcing it and being careful not to use the word “war” in press releases. This has led to fuzziness and obfuscation from our political leaders and military when defining the objectives of fighting. In the last four major wars–oops, armed conflicts–the US has fought in, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, there was no declared goal of victory and surrender by the enemy, which led to them dragging on and on until the people, wearying of the body counts, had enough and we withdrew, with little or nothing to show for the years of carnage.

All of this is to preface the question in the header: does Putin really know what he is getting into? The situation in Ukraine bears a strong resemblance to those of countries this country has fought post-1945 (also to our own Revolutionary War). The Ukrainians have a strong and fierce fighting tradition; they despise the Russians, and, to quote Mr Churchill, they will never surrender.

Putin is facing a long, unwinnable guerrilla war with a brutal and dedicated foe, who will stop at nothing to drive the hated Russians out. War is hugely expensive. If (and that’s a big “if”) the US and NATO follow through with their sanctions, and if (a much smaller “if”) China doesn’t come to the rescue, Russia could run out of money, though Putin won’t.

In my last post I wrote Putin “is no dummy.” That was relative of course to our turnip brain in the White House. It may turn he is not as clever as he thinks.